⚠ Supply Alert · Raw Material Update
Jubail is burning. PP prices have doubled. This is no longer a market cycle — it is a supply crisis.
In the early hours of 7 April 2026, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones struck the Al Jubail Industrial City on Saudi Arabia’s Gulf coast — the world’s largest integrated petrochemical complex. Fires broke out at facilities belonging to SABIC, the Middle East’s largest petrochemical company and one of the world’s biggest producers of polypropylene. Brent crude had already closed above $127 per barrel at the end of March — up more than 60% from where it started 2026. At Adpack, the PP resin we use to manufacture your woven sacks, FIBCs, and laminated bags has approximately doubled in price since the conflict began. And the attack on Jubail means the pressure is not receding. Every packaging buyer in East Africa needs to understand what happened, what it means for supply, and what to do now.
The oil price story — in numbers
Crude oil is the origin point of every polypropylene molecule. When oil moves, PP follows — with a lag of weeks, not months. The scale of the oil shock since late February 2026 is without recent precedent in peacetime markets. Brent settled at approximately $94 per barrel on 9 March, already up around 50% from the start of the year. It then pushed to above $127 by the end of March as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed to normal transit and refinery and petrochemical infrastructure across the Gulf came under repeated attack. As of 6 April, Brent was trading at approximately $111 per barrel — still roughly $47 above where it was a year ago. That is not a price spike. That is a structural repricing of the energy system that feeds into every packaging input cost.
| Price Reference | Before Conflict | Peak / Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil | ~$63/bbl (Jan 2026) | $127/bbl (31 Mar) | ▲ +100% |
| Naphtha (PP feedstock) | Crack spread ~$68/mt above Brent (Feb) | ~$190/mt above Brent (Mar) | ▲ +179% |
| PP raffia CFR West Africa | Pre-conflict baseline | +39% since conflict start (S&P Global Platts) | ▲ +39%+ |
| PP resin landed cost (Adpack) | Pre-conflict baseline | Approximately doubled | ▲ ~+100% |
| PP raffia CFR Mombasa (spot) | ~$1,020/mt (pre-conflict est.) | $1,800/mt | ▲ +76% |
Sources: S&P Global Platts; Chemical Week / S&P Global Energy; Fortune; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (March 2026). Adpack PP resin cost movement reflects direct commercial intelligence as a buyer and manufacturer.
What Jubail is — and why the 7 April attack changes everything
Al Jubail is the single largest concentration of petrochemical production on earth — producing approximately 60 million tons of chemical products annually, representing 6 to 8 percent of global output. SABIC, Dow Chemical’s Sadara joint venture, and the SATORP refinery (Saudi Aramco and TotalEnergies) are all located there. SABIC had already declared force majeure on multiple product lines from Jubail on 26–27 March — before a single missile had landed on the site. The Strait of Hormuz had been effectively closed since mid-March. Dow Chemical had already declared it was unable to load volumes at Jubail due to logistics disruptions. Then, on the morning of 7 April, ballistic missiles and drones struck the complex directly, causing confirmed fires at SABIC plants. This is not a supply disruption. This is a supply destruction event at the world’s most important petrochemical hub.
Jubail is not just a petrochemical hub. It produces the steel, gasoline, fertilizers, and lubricants that keep East Africa moving.
Located in eastern Saudi Arabia, Al Jubail is home to one of the world’s largest industrial cities — producing steel, gasoline, petrochemicals, lubricating oil, and chemical fertilizers. That list matters. When Jubail is struck, the damage does not stop at polypropylene. For Kenya and East Africa, the ripple runs across every sector of the economy. The fertilizers that Kenyan farmers depend on for maize, tea, and horticulture come through Gulf supply chains anchored in facilities like these. The steel that feeds construction projects across Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kampala is priced against the same energy and logistics infrastructure now under attack. The gasoline and lubricants that move goods from the port of Mombasa to the interior are being repriced at the pump right now. And the polypropylene that becomes the woven sacks, FIBCs, and packaging films used across East African agriculture, flour milling, cement, and consumer goods — that too is being destroyed at source. This is not a distant geopolitical event. It is a structural cost shock arriving simultaneously across food, construction, logistics, and industrial packaging. African buyers who treat this as a temporary price spike will find themselves under-stocked and over-exposed when the full scale of the supply destruction becomes clear.
The supply chain that feeds your packaging
Crude oil → Naphtha → Propylene → Polypropylene resin → Tape and yarn → Woven fabric → Your woven sack, FIBC, or laminated bag. A physical strike on a major PP production facility does not raise prices. It removes volume from the market entirely. Price and availability are now two separate problems.
This is a volume event, not just a price event
There is a critical distinction that most buyers miss in moments like this. A price event means the material is available but costs more — you negotiate, you absorb, you pass through. A volume event means the material is not there at any price, because the plant that makes it is on fire, under force majeure, or cannot ship because the waterway is closed. When all three conditions exist simultaneously — as they do today — price negotiation is the wrong tool entirely. You cannot buy your way out of a physical shortage. You can only secure allocation before others do, or face production stoppages.
The allocation hierarchy in a physical shortage
When supply is genuinely constrained, producers allocate remaining resin based on relationship history, forecast visibility, payment reliability, and volume consistency — not on who is willing to pay most. Buyers who provide rolling forecasts, pay on time, and maintain consistent volumes are protected first. Buyers who buy ad hoc, delay purchase orders, or renegotiate every transaction are cut first and served last. In Asia, industry sources reported that several producers had already reduced spot and contract allocations and were informing customers that orders may not be fully fulfilled. That dynamic is now intensifying.
What Adpack is doing
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We are actively working to confirm resin allocation across our supplier network. Committed customer orders with forecast visibility are being prioritised in our raw material planning.
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We source PP resin from multiple origins. We are evaluating availability and lead times across our full supplier base to protect production continuity for customers with confirmed orders.
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Customers who share 60–90 day rolling forecasts receive planning priority. In a constrained market, forecast visibility is the most valuable asset a buyer can offer their supplier.
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All new quotations are valid for 48 hours only. The underlying cost position is changing daily. We cannot hold prices open in a market where the inputs are being repriced continuously.
What you must do now
Do not wait for the situation to clarify before acting. In a physical supply event, buyers who move first to confirm volumes get protected. Those who wait for certainty find there is nothing left to allocate at any price.
Price negotiation strategy that works in a normal market is the wrong tool in a supply destruction event. Holding out for a lower price when the world’s largest petrochemical complex has been struck is not a savings strategy — it is a shortage strategy. The next price is higher, not lower.
If you have storage capacity and a reliable payment position, holding extra packaging stock is an operational hedge against a production stoppage — not an overstock risk. A packaging shortage during peak production season is far more expensive than the cost of carrying additional inventory.
Brent crude hit $127/bbl at March’s close. PP resin prices at Adpack have approximately doubled since the conflict began. SABIC was on force majeure before missiles landed at Jubail. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Today’s attack is a physical escalation on top of a market that was already in crisis. This will not normalise quickly. The buyers who are protected are those who confirm supply today — not those who wait for prices to come back down.
Speak to Us Now — Do Not Wait
We are monitoring the situation in real time. If you have open orders, upcoming requirements, or questions about supply availability — contact us immediately.
Sources:
AFP / Gulf News, “Attack sparks fire at SABIC plants in Jubail” (7 April 2026); S&P Global Platts, PP raffia price assessments (March 2026); Chemical Week / S&P Global Energy, “Basic Chemicals & Plastics” (30 March / 6 April 2026); EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (March 2026); Fortune, Brent crude daily price report (6 April 2026); Polymerupdate, PP Asia price assessments (March 2026). PP resin landed cost movement reflects Adpack’s direct commercial intelligence as a buyer and manufacturer.